This episode is with Jean-Stanislas “JS” Denain of Epoch AI, who leads their Insights Team and is one of the people I find myself debating the state and trajectory of AI with more and more. We’ve had follow-on discussions of many of my favorite recent posts online and/or in private, so I wanted to dig into the nuance in a public episode. A big takeaway of this podcast is how JS and I both have so much uncertainty with exactly where we are heading, and this was our best effort at stating our observations today. Chapters / topics include: - 00:00 Predictions for RSI - 18:15 The role of robotics in an AI acceleration - 24:20 How far behind are Chinese models? - 27:39 Does distillation explain the gap? - 40:58 What Chinese job postings reveal about their labs - 48:13 Are open or closed models safer? - 58:10 How Epoch AI ticks - 1:00:55 What a frontier post-training recipe looks like Enjoy! More from JS: Epoch AI profile and writing , X , LinkedIn Share Listen on Apple Podcast

I was recently invited to brief a group of Congressional members and staff on the state of open-weight models in the lens of U.S.-China competition. I’m sharing my prepared remarks as a state of the union on open models that is accessible to a broader audience. Interconnects AI is a reader-supported publication. Consider becoming a subscriber. Recap: What is an open source v. open-weight vs. closed model? Open language models are AI models where their weights are publicly available for inspection or downstream use. These are most often contrasted to so-called “closed” AI models. Closed models offer access only through Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that developers can use to directly query a model, like GPT-4 or Claude Opus 4.5, or through products, like ChatGPT and Claude Code. Open language models primarily are bucketed into two categories, open-weight and open-source models. Open-weight models are the most common form, such as popular models like Meta’s Llama, Alibaba

We’re in an era where a few organizations are using thousands of concurrent agents to improve their processes and output. These organizations happen to be just the frontier AI labs, in particular OpenAI and Anthropic. In the last few weeks, I’ve been pondering what it means for so many employees across these organizations to rapidly update their expectations for the pace of AI progress and associated risks. A core perspective I have is that the frontier labs and broader frenetic, competitive culture in the San Francisco AI scene set up an environment that amplifies any AI concern. This has some benefits in causing more general audience awareness of AI, as fear sells, but exaggerating risk timelines or severity will have negative second-order effects. I remember many loud AI safety debates, and their associated clouds over the viability of open-source AI, in 2023 and 2024 — the primary risks then did not arrive in the forecasted timelines. The general populace of these two key labs wa

Hey all! I’ve been prepping for some public-audience and policy-facing writing on open models, so I figured I would share my research materials. There’s lots of wonderful stuff in here. This is my list of the best writing on open models in the last few years. If someone decides they want to get up to speed on the area, reading this will be a comprehensive overview of the state of affairs. Please comment pieces to consider adding below, and I’ll update this over time. List last updated: 13 Sep. 2026 Share Foundation What open models are, why people release them, how they relate to business strategy, and what the risks are. - On open source AI strategy, a walkthrough of how open-source software has been used by businesses and early signs of what that means for AI — From Open Source Software to Open Source Strategy , Bill Gurley (May 2026). - One of the clearest articulations is Mark Zuckerberg’s comments around Llama 3’s release as to why Meta releases open models — Open Source AI