What happens when environmental change outpaces life’s ability to adapt?
When an animal’s environment changes faster than the animal can adapt, its chances of survival can flat-line.
Now, scientists at MIT and the University of Leicester have found that this connection between evolutionary adaptation and the pace of environmental change holds up at the global scale as well — and can determine life’s susceptibility to mass extinction. The researchers developed a theoretical model of this phenomenon, which they present in a paper appearing today in Physical Review Letters .
The team compared the model with available data from past major mass extinctions, including how fast the global environment changed at the time of each event. The model successfully predicted the severity of most mass extinctions in Earth’s history, or the fraction of life that was unable to adapt, and therefore went extinct.
Interestingly, the researchers found that the range of adaptation rates across animal groups is broadly similar to the range of rates at which the environment can change.
“What we’re beginning to see is a certain level of organization, and ways in which life behaves that are consistent with the ways in which the environment behaves,” says study author Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics and co-director of the Lorenz Center at MIT. “It may be that life has evolved so that its range of adaptabilities matches the range of stresses that it meets.”
Rothman’s study co-author is Sergei Petrovskii, professor of applied mathematics at the University of Leicester in England.