A $1.75T IPO Would Be Overpaying 30% for SpaceX
SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO on April 1, 2026 , targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and a June listing. If completed, it would be the largest IPO in history.
I found this valuation interesting because SpaceX is a conglomerate now, so valuing the business segments together has a lot of intangible value. But my particular interest was because the IPO will happen in June (or later), so the question is not: what is SpaceX worth now, but what will SpaceX be worth then?
That's a forecasting question, so I decided to forecast it.
I broke SpaceX into seven business segments and forecast what the fair market value of each will be as of June 2026, assuming the IPO happens then. My conclusion is that for the company to be fairly valued at $1.75 trillion in June, each of its businesses would need to outperform between now and then.
Red portion of the IPO bar shows the 29% premium over SOTP fair value.
At median forecasted values: Starlink Consumer Broadband at $380B (9.2M subscribers, ~38x revenue), xAI/Grok at $258B (anchored by the $250B merger ), Starship Commercial Launch at $170B (pre-revenue option value), Starlink Enterprise/Maritime/Aviation at $147B, Government/Defense at $123B (~$22B contract backlog), Falcon 9/Heavy at $100B (~60-70% of global launches), and Starlink Direct-to-Cell at $75B (backed by $17-19B in EchoStar spectrum ).