“War should never be entered upon until every agency of peace has failed.” – William McKinley There’s no sugarcoating the ominous turn of events that occurred in the Middle East over the past two weeks. The rapid advance of the Houthis across the Red Sea coast, the serious damage sustained by the newly all-important East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia, and continuing signs of an imminent global diesel crunch all come on the heels of months of disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The economic calamity that nearly everybody assumed would follow shortly after Hormuz closed—including us, it must be said—looks soon to be upon us. Bleeding the strategic reserves, stretching alternative supply routes, deferring massive amounts of crude demand, and talking up nonexistent peace negotiations certainly postponed the reckoning longer than most could have anticipated, but those tactics were always meant to buy time for things to get better. That they have unarguably gotten materia
