Will the Iran war slow U.S. hiring? Economists say risks are rising.
With oil prices rising and hiring already slowing, economists warn the Iran war could further weigh on U.S. job growth.
The Iran war is adding fresh pressure to a slowing U.S. labor market, with at least one major employer already freezing hiring plans.
Consumer goods giant Unilever, which owns brands such as Dove and Vaseline, told CBS News on Tuesday that it's hitting the brakes on hiring amid an unstable economic backdrop . In a memo obtained by Reuters , a Unilever executive pointed to "macroeconomic and geopolitical realities, especially in the Middle East conflict" as the reason for the company's three-month hiring freeze.
Even before the Iran war began, the U.S. hiring rate had slowed, with the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey hitting its lowest level since 2020. Employers across the U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected setback in a labor market marked by anemic job growth during the past year as businesses grappled with tariffs and economic uncertainty.
"We're in a period of uncertainty, much like in 2025 with tariffs," Oxford Economics senior U.S. economist Matthew Martin told CBS News. "Companies weren't sure what the policy, what their cost structure was going to be, which led them to delay hiring."
The Iran war's impact on hiring may not be immediately reflected in the March jobs report, set to be released on April 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Employers across the U.S. likely added 60,000 jobs last month, rebounding from February's decline, according to the average estimate of economists polled by FactSet.
"The March jobs report is likely to show modest gains due largely to the ongoing strength of healthcare employment," said Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. Friday's data release will be "too early to see the impact from the war in Iran."